Best Practices in Demand Planning and Forecasting

Cara Suites Hotel & Conference Centre, Trinidad and Tobago,
29th Jun - 1st Jul 2020

Best Practices in Demand Planning and Forecasting

- Make better forecasts to enhance business results during times of high uncertainty

This workshop is specifically designed to address key issues in the minds of those with management responsibilities and those who work alongside them, by providing a set of data and forecasting procedures and demonstrating with illustrative examples how such procedures are used in data preparation and model building and forecasting. The course focuses on conceptual framework of models, and thus providing a clear vision of what each model represents, it’s underlying assumptions and what its model statistics imply. Such understanding helps forecasters and business professionals not only in evaluating models but also in selecting the right one for preparing forecasts. The limitations of each of the models are pointed out throughout the course as well. The requirements of mathematics are kept to a minimum, as most of the forecasting software systems do this on their own.

We will use real data examples throughout the course to give the live experience from variety of industry sectors. Our goal is to discuss those topics, which have a real application in business and are easy to apply.

This workshop provides a combination of best practices in data management, segmentation and cleansing approaches required for sound statistical forecasting and forecast presentation, blending years of experience as first-line practitioners and managers with years of management consulting practice.

SPECIAL SEGMENT OF THIS WORKSHOP is dealing with application of different forecasting methods to make better business forecasts during times of high uncertainty, pandemics (COVID-19 etc.), trade wars and increased tariffs.

IMPORTANT: To translate and expedite classroom learning to real-life applications, participants are REQUIRED to bring their own laptops. DATA ANALYSIS MS Excel Add-In MUST BE ACTIVATED. You are encouraged to BRING YOUR OWN DATA: we have allocated time to work with individuals on their specific need.

How Will You BENEFIT

  • Establish a process for effective forecasting
  • Select the forecasting and analytical techniques most appropriate for any given forecasting problem
  • Analyze historical data fast and accurately to improve statistical forecast quality and accuracy
  • Evaluate performance of a statistical model
  • Interpret ‘residuals’ and model diagnostics to support effective model-building effort
  • Benefit from understanding techniques of combining various forecasts to improve accuracy and stability
  • Gain solid understanding of data and the processes generating data and forecasts
  • Understand the exception driven forecast process and how to implement it in your organization
  • Incorporate market data into statistical forecasting
  • Explore various techniques used to transform data to improve the quality of statistical forecast
  • Understand various trends and how they impact your forecasts

Presented by Internationally Renowned Expert

Charles L. Novak, CPIM

President and Principal Consultant, Jaguar Advanced Planning Services Inc.


  • Senior Consultant, Institute of Business Forecasting and Planning (IBF)
  • Functional Lead – Demand Planning Implementation, Johnson & Johnson
  • Head of Demand Planning, Pfizer Consumer Healthcare
  • Forecast Manager, Nabisco, Lever-Ponds and Reckitt & Colman

Module 1

Approaching Forecasting


Case Study and Exercise:

Outlier recognition and treatment – a group activity based on a collection of FMCG, Service, B2B and Demographics data sets. The delegates will learn how to deploy basic normal distribution and statistical process control techniques to validate quality of the data before they attempt to generate forecasts using their systems. These techniques can be used with any forecasting software/system.


Performance evaluation

Case Study and Exercise:

Data cleansing – a group activity based on a collection of FMCG, Service, B2B and Demographics data sets. The delegates will learn how to remove one-off events that may affect quality of statistical forecast. These techniques can be used with any forecasting software/system.


Module 2

Forecasting Methods Overview

Group Exercise – Exponential Smoothing and Averages:

Delegates will explore simple forecasting models by building them in MS Excel. These models are common to all forecasting systems in the market. Many forecasters create higher forecast error by simply not understanding the impact of changing the models or their statistical parameters. By building these models in excel, delegates will solidify their knowledge of these critical base concepts.


Group Exercise and Discussion – Seasonal Decomposition:

Delegates will analyze sales data to find patterns in past sales that they can use to predict future sales. As they find a pattern, delegates strip it away from the data, changing the shape of the data that remains. Then delegates will look for new patterns and strip them away. Delegates continue to strip away patterns until only unexplained fluctuations remain. Understanding this technique is fundamental to successful statistical forecasting using ANY commercially available software and system.


Group Exercise and Discussion – Triple Exponential Smoothing:

Delegates will explore hands-on the most widely used statistical forecasting model. Understanding this model is fundamental to successful statistical forecasting using ANY commercially available software and system.


Cause and Effect Models

Case Study and Group Exercise
Advertising Expenditure vs. Market Share:

Delegates will explore application of regression analysis as a ‘What-If?’ tool that can be used during their demand review meetings.

Case Study and Group Exercise Inkjet Photo Paper Inc.:

Delegates will develop regression model incorporating external data (sales of inkjet printers) into their forecasting model.

Case Study and Group Exercise: Forecasting in times of pandemics (SARS, COVID-19), trade wars and new import tariffs:

Delegates will develop several forecasting models to predict future based on changing business rules and decide on which method is best to use.


Module 3

Forecasting of promotions

Group Exercise – Incorporating promotions into Statistical Forecast

Delegates will use dummy variables – a multiple regression forecasting technique – to incorporate impact of irregular promotional activity and other one-of-a-kind events that simple forecasting methods cannot capture.


Group Exercise – Regression for Promotional Planning

Delegates will use sales and price data along with dummy variables to develop “what-if’ forecasting model that will aid management in making decisions about the best pricing strategy for upcoming promotions.


Module 4

New product forecasting

Case Study and Group Exercise – New Product Forecast Template:

Delegates will discuss and understand the concepts of modeling forecast for new products that fall into line-extension category and incorporate marketing, sales and supply chain in the entire process.


Module 5

Forecast error metrics

Case Study and Exercise:

Delegates will develop forecast error report utilizing best-practice metrics.

  • MAPE vs. WMAPE
  • Tracking Signal and Weighted Bias application


Module 6

Communication and Maintenance

Module 7

Taking it Home

Learn from Internationally Renowned Expert

Charles L. Novak, President and Principal Consultant, Jaguar Advanced Planning Services Inc., has over 25 years of management and consulting experience in Demand and Supply Planning, Executive S&OP / IBP, with many leading Fortune 500 Companies as his clients. His achievements include multiple implementations of Sales and Operations Planning process, implementations of demand planning and statistical forecasting systems.

Charles was the Head of Demand Planning Department at Pfizer Consumer Healthcare, Canada where he was responsible for the development, agreement, and accuracy of the $380 Million demand forecast, as well as for the research, evaluation, and recommendation of new technology in the demand planning area. He also assumed key roles of Senior Consultant, Institute of Business Forecasting and Planning (IBF); Functional Lead – Demand Planning Implementation, Johnson & Johnson; Senior Demand Planning Manager, Pfizer Consumer Healthcare; Forecast Manager, Nabisco, Lever-Ponds and Reckitt & Colman.

Charles regularly speaks at IBF and IIF (International Institute of Forecasters) conferences and workshops worldwide. Charles has taught courses for APICS Certification in Production and Inventory Management (CPIM) and Fundamentals of Operations Management since 1999. In addition, he has led numerous in-house and public training sessions/workshops worldwide.

Some of Charles’ Public and In-House Workshops Clients:

  • Abbott, EU
  • Apotex, Canada
  • Bayer, Canada
  • BMW, Malaysia
  • British American Tobacco
  • Carlsberg Group
  • Coca-Cola, China
  • ConAgra Foods, North America
  • Danone, Canada
  • Del Monte Foods, Canada
  • FGF Brands, Canada
  • France Telecom Group, France
  • GSK, Canada
  • Hanes Brands, USA
  • Heineken, USA
  • Heinz, USA
  • Ingersoll Rand, USA
  • Johnson & Johnson, Canada
  • Laird Technologies, USA
  • L.L. Bean, USA
  • Lafarge Cement, Indonesia
  • Mead Johnson, USA
  • MARS, North America
  • McDonalds, China
  • Nestlé, Canada
  • Nike, China
  • Robert Transport, Canada
  • Sony, Canada
  • Toshiba Electronics, Canada
  • Triumph, APAC
  • Unilever, Global
  • Walmart, Canada & India

“I would describe Charles as someone extremely passionate and knowledgeable about forecasting & planning that goes above and beyond to help others. I’ve always admired his great ability teach people what he knows.”

– Managing Director, Institute of Business Forecasting and Planning (IBF)

This workshop is designed for EDs, Directors, Managers and Analysts of:

  • Forecasting / Planning
  • New Product Forecasting
  • Supply Chain Management
  • Allocation and Planning
  • Load Forecasting
  • Strategic Planning
  • Demand Management Process
  • Brand Management
  • Promotions Planning
  • Finance
  • Production Planning
  • Merchandising
  • Product Life-Cycle
  • Trade Promotions
  • Retail Collaboration
  • Sales
  • Marketing
  • Marketing Research
  • Sales Analysis
  • Statistical Modeling

  • Designed by professionals with combined 60+ years of practical business forecasting / demand planning experience
  • Layered hands-on Excel exercises that foster stronger understanding and retention of materials covered during the workshop
  • Practical understanding of leading forecasting software and systems including SAP APO, JDA MANUGISTICS, JDA i2, Forecast PRO, FuturMaster and other to facilitate the discussion pertaining to software selection / use and program content applicability to individual systems
  • Workshop aligned with Institute of Business Forecasting and Planning (IBF) Advanced Certified Professional Forecaster (ACPF) designation
  • 60 days post–workshop support via phone/email on workshop covered materials / topics

How This Program Can Help Organizations during Tough Times Like This?
In the face of fast-paced globalization of economies and increasingly intensified competition, rarely a day goes by without an announcement of new product or new policy, an existing one discontinued or modified, a set of new features or measurements added. At the same time, when stakeholders or customers are demanding faster delivery and quicker service, organizations often lack the resources and the expertise to effectively manage a leaner supply chain required to meet these challenges. Many executives with supply chain and logistics responsibilities are either working in “survival mode” or moving forward and beginning to make their supply chains more responsive, flexible, and efficient.

Making improvements in Demand Management is one of the most critical factors to attain a lean supply chain, since a clear correlation exists between High Forecast Error and Lost Sales, Dissatisfied Stakeholders or Wasted Expenditures. Leadership in Demand Chain Management results in increased customer satisfaction, revenue and profit on the bottom line.

This workshop also makes specific recommendations to move up the demand forecasting maturity curve by providing new tools that speed up the validation of your data used for forecasting, increasing effectiveness of use of the software you have invested in and significantly increasing productivity of your forecasting staff.

SPECIAL SEGMENT OF THIS WORKSHOP is dealing with application of different forecasting methods to make better business forecasts during times of high uncertainty, pandemics (COVID-19 etc.), trade wars and increased tariffs.


This course will be held in a highly interactive workshop format with case studies and real-world examples. Limited class size is strictly enforced to enhance individual learning experience and interaction ith trainer and other participants.

IMPORTANT: To translate and expedite classroom learning to real-life applications, participants are REQUIRED to bring their own laptops. DATA ANALYSIS MS Excel Add-In MUST BE ACTIVATED. You are encouraged to BRING YOUR OWN DATA: we have allocated time to work with individuals on their specific need.


Charles Novak would like to customize the training based on your specific needs. A Pre-Course Questionnaire will be sent to you prior to the workshop to complete and for the trainer to analyse in advance and address during the course.


Upon the successful completion of this course, you will receive a Certificate of Attendance bearing the signatures from both the Expert Trainer and the Course Organizer. This Certificate will testify your endeavour and serve towards your professional advancement.

Knowledge Partner

Oxford Business Group (OBG) is a global publishing, research and consultancy firm, which publishes economic intelligence on the markets of Latin America, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa.

OBG offers comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic and sectoral developments, including banking, capital markets, energy, infrastructure, industry and insurance.

OBG’s acclaimed economic and business reports are the leading source of local and regional intelligence, while OBG’s online economic briefings provide up-to-date in-depth analysis. OBG’s consultancy arm offers tailor-made market intelligence and advice to firms operating in these markets and those looking to enter them.

Event Endorser

MCLI was established in 2004 by infrastructure investors, users and service providers on the Maputo Corridor to address constraints hindering freight movement and to market the viability of the corridor for regional trade. Its partnership of public and private sector members and proactive role has resulted in visibility, credibility and acknowledgement as a model corridor management institution.

Resulting from investment in key infrastructure, the corridor has been a powerful instrument of regional and economic integration; with over $5billion invested in the region since its inception, resultant capital flow has provided sustained economic growth on the corridor in recent years.

Inherent to MCLI’s success is its leveraging of relationships at the highest level to pursue its vision of a cost effective, reliable logistics route. www.mcli.co.za

Media Partners

CrowdReviews.com is a transparent online platform for determining which products and services are the best based on the opinion of the crowd. The crowd consists of Internet users which have experienced products and services first-hand and have an interest in letting other potential buyers their thoughts on their experience. CrowdReviews.com is driven by an algorithm allowing for both customers and providers of products and services to understand how the rankings are determined. The service can be used by potential buyers to learn more about their vendors prior to making a purchasing decision

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Proudly African is an initiative of Global Village Africa which is a marketing and business platform geared towards showcasing and harmonising Africa’s development, trade and cultural diversity to a global audience.

This is where the BEST OF AFRICA in business, government and non-profit organisations unite, promoting their vision and best practice in order to find the right customers, partnerships and joint ventures – in order to grow alongside the continent’s indisputable economic potential.

The initiative has an unstoppable magnetic presence with its ever growing country and sectoral window already in over 20 African states. We invite all leaders in business and government across Africa to showcase and integrate their visions and activities so as to promote inter-Africa trade, investment and technology transfer from around the globe

The www.gvpedia.com site was launched in 2008 so the success stories from the Best of the World print publications could all feature on an online platform. We have more than 5000 pages live and growing fast. In July 2009 we launched a partnership programme and an eBook library to GVPedia which has opened up the scope for new publishing partnerships beyond the ‘Best of Series’ with complementary books and magazines that focus on travel and business from around the world.

The Partnerships Bulletin, PPP Bulletin and P3 Bulletin are a series of magazines and websites providing in-depth updates on partnership working between the public and private sector to procure, build and manage public infrastructure.

Each hard-copy edition of P3 Bulletin (Americas) and Partnerships Bulletin (UK) includes news, interviews with the top industry figures, in-depth market reports on partnership sectors and industry authored articles covering transport, waste, education, healthcare, housing, courts and leisure. Plus, the magazine includes a Business Leads section – giving you information about projects before they are even advertised.

Subscription to all three websites also gives you unlimited access to constantly updated news stories, features and searchable Project Tracker.

The websites and magazines are essential reading for industry professionals to help them make informed decisions and remain at the cutting edge of partnerships and infrastructure business information.

Africa Investor (Ai) is a specialist investment communications firm advising governments, international organisations and businesses on communication strategies for capital market and foreign direct investments in Africa. Africa investor publishes Africa investor, the leading international newsstand magazine for Africa’s investment decision makers; maintains the Ai40 Investors’ Index, hosts the Ai Institutional Investment Summit & Awards, Ai Investment Climate Summit and Investments and Business Leader Awards and the Ai Infrastructure Investment Summit & Awards, among other events.

Animus provides an overview of Sustainability activities in Africa and the direction that has been taken by most companies. The magazine uses the CSR analysis approach to validate the sustainability of various projects underway at any stage of implementation. We provide the much needed platform for sharing best practice with a growing sustainability network. www.animus-csr.com

Africa Monitor is internationally recognised as providing essential information for anyone doing business in, or with Africa. The publication provides subscribers with systematic political risk assessment, economic forecasts and business analysis for every country across the region.

Published by Business Monitor International, the emerging market specialists, Africa Monitor is broken down into four sub regional publications, of which any combination can be subscribed to. The Middle East and Africa Monitor website http://www.meamonitor.com/ includes ALL the content from the publications, a 24-month archive, and gives the added flexibility of exploring that content by country, topic or keyword.

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For a copy of the FULL AGENDA, please send email to: hayat@neo-edge.com
Or please call us at Tel: +65 6282 7082

The course fee does not include accommodation and travel cost. It is recommended to book the hotel guest rooms early. Kindly contact the following for reservation:

Cara Suites Hotel & Conference Centre

Southern Main Road, Claxton Bay, Trinidad

Elise Baptiste

Events Executive

T: +1 868 659-2272

F: 1 868 659-2202

E: conferences@carasuites.com

Please quoteDemand Planning and Forecastingorganized by Neoedge to when you make booking.

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